This graphic is from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration … the U.S. Also avoid areas south of even small towns. Nights with lots of moonlight will tend to “wash out” the aurora. In order to see the Northern Lights you need dark, cloud free skies with open views to the North and Northeast. I watched the parents raise triplets recently near my home at the northern edge of Duluth. Immediate Forecasts are very good and use Ovation Aurora which measures current conditions on earth and makes predictions for 20 to 40 minutes in the future.Ī Quick Timeout … Would you like to download a free PDF copy of my latest children’s picture book, Do You Hoot? The book is the story of the Amity Owlets. something that happened up to 28 days ago in the past) Long term forecasts are based upon the last time a particular spot on the sun was pointed towards earth (i.e. Thus, while short term forecasting is MUCH better than long term forecasts, it is still problematic. NASA and NOAA attempt to measure CME’s using satellites and telescopes. Questions arise about CME size, strength, direction/angle, etc. Obviously it is impossible to stand on the surface of the sun to measure a CME. Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) often take up to 72 hours to reach earth. Question and Answer: Why are long term forecasts unreliable, but short term forecasts are decent? A short term forecast of 72 hours or less is based upon actual observed current conditions on the surface of the sun. increasing or decreasing power numbers noted over a few hours) If you see lots of bright colors (reds and oranges), and power readings way above 50 GW, get outside and look north! Pay attention to trends (i.e. In northern Minnesota I like power numbers greater than 45 GW (see upper right hand corner of map). Upon linking to the site, you will see a image of the northern hemisphere. Ovation Aurora forecasts the likelihood of viewing the Aurora within the next 30 minutes.Immediate Forecast (current to 24 hours, very reliable).Once again, for Northern Minnesota you want a Kp of “5” or higher. For the Central Time Zone UTC varies from local time by 5 or 6 hours (daylight or standard time). Times are in UTC, which must be converted to your local time zone. SpaceWeather Live maintains a forecast for Aurora conditions expected over the next 72 hours.NOAA Aurora Borealis Watches & Warnings.The page is a bit difficult to understand, but just remember these key points: Watches & Warning are good. NOAA (The National Weather Service) maintains a graph which tracks Aurora watches and warnings.Short Term Forecast (1 to 3 days from today, kind of reliable).Planning Your Northern Lights Trip (i.e.28 Day Advanced Northern Lights Forecast.Ultimately you want to see a rating (Kp) of “5” or higher for viewing in Northern Minnesota. Long term Aurora forecasts are NOT reliable, but if you are planning a trip and hoping to optimize your viewing chances, this resource from the University of Alaska is worth utilizing. If there was solar activity at a particular time during the past cycle (28 days ago), long term forecasts will predict similar activity when that region of the sun again points at the earth 28 days later. The Northern Lights tend to follow the 28 day solunar cycle.Long Term Forecast (4 to 28 days from today, not very reliable).Recommended App: Aurora-Alerts (no financial benefit to me).However, the app provides Aurora forecasts, current conditions, and alerts. See my full review on this blog with screenshots. I recommend using Aurora-Alerts which is available for both Apple and Android devices. Use this tool to convert UT to your local time zone. Anything beyond 72 hours is NOT reliable.See below for app recommendation and review. Uses Ovation Aurora … want 45 Ghz or higher in NE Minnesota. A map to one of my favorite Northern Lights viewing locations which is a bit north of Duluth may be found at the very bottom of this post. This web page lists resources that will help you predict whether the Northern Lights will dance across the skies from 30 minutes to 28 days out from the current time. Use these resources to learn when an aurora display is forecast! Northern Minnesota is one of the best areas to view the Aurora in the continental United States due to its proximity to magnetic north (northern Hudson Bay).
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |